Medicare Advantage Premiums Fall to $12 on Average. In 19 States They Go Up, and the Drug Cap Moves to $2,400.

If you or a parent is on a Medicare Advantage plan, CMS has good news for the average enrollee. The typical monthly premium falls to $12.00 next year, from $14.37.

Nobody is the average enrollee. Your plan’s 2027 price is already posted, and the window to switch opens October 15.

The headline and the fine print

CMS put out its 2027 numbers on September 28. CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz credited the stable premiums to “slashing handouts to big insurance companies.” Fair enough. The national average did go down.

Then CMS published its state-by-state fact sheets, and the average starts to come apart.

The average Medicare Advantage premium goes up in 19 states. Wyoming’s jumps from $45.91 to $69.23 a month. Connecticut goes from $16.89 to $25.31, Idaho from $27.81 to $37.93, and Vermont from $0 to $7.79.

Plan choices shrink too. 29 states have fewer Medicare Advantage plans next year than this year.

State	MA plans 2026	MA plans 2027
Florida	611	560
Ohio	212	180
Illinois	157	136
Maryland	63	47
Minnesota	68	53
Montana	32	23

Those are net counts, so some of those plans were folded into others rather than shut down. If yours is one that ended, your plan has to tell you, and that notice is the most important mail you’ll get this fall.

CMS’s own line gives it away: about 8 in 10 enrollees can keep their plan at the same or a lower premium. Translation: about 2 in 10 can’t.

What it costs you

In Wyoming, the average increase is $23.32 a month. On a plan that tracks the state average, that’s $279.84 more a year.

Drug costs move as well. The Part D out-of-pocket cap, the most you can pay for covered drugs in a year, rises to $2,400 from $2,100. The standard deductible goes to $700 from $615. If you take an expensive brand-name drug, your worst-case year just got $300 worse.

The premium isn’t the only number that matters. A plan with a $0 premium that drops your doctor or moves your drug to a higher tier can easily cost more than a plan at $20 that keeps both.

Verdict: if you’re in one of the 19 states, or you got a non-renewal notice, shop. Everyone else should still spend 20 minutes on the Plan Finder. A falling average doesn’t tell you your plan didn’t change.

Do this before December 7

Pull out the Annual Notice of Change your plan mailed in September. Check the 2027 premium, the deductible, and whether every one of your doctors and drugs is still covered.

Then go to the Plan Finder on Medicare.gov, which has 2027 plans loaded. Enter your actual prescriptions, not a guess. Star Ratings post on or around October 8, and open enrollment runs October 15 to December 7, with changes taking effect January 1.

Got a non-renewal notice? Don’t wait for it to sort itself out. If you don’t pick a new Medicare Advantage plan before yours ends, CMS says you land in Original Medicare. You also get a special window from December 8 through the end of February to choose. Pick before December 7 and you skip any gap.

Our Medicare guide explains Original Medicare versus Advantage. We covered the Part D premium subsidy ending in August, and that’s why your drug list matters more than your premium this year.

The detail

The state numbers come from CMS’s fact sheets, which list each state’s 2026 and 2027 average premium and plan count. Our counts of 19 and 29 cover the 50 states only, not D.C. or the territories. The cheapest standalone drug plan is $5.30 a month in most states, against a national average of $36. That cheaper plan may not cover your drugs. Check before you switch.

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